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Old IIP problem on capital goods plagues new index too

NEW DELHI: The new index for industrial production , or IIP, that is expected to be launched soon has not enthused economists as they expect it to have one major flaw of the old index, month-on-month volatility.

The source of this volatility is largely from the capital goods segment, a flaw that the new index has not addressed.

The reason lies in the way the index has been formulated -- it takes into consideration the end product manufactured by companies, including those products that have a manufacturing cycle extending to a quarter or more.

This results in sharp spikes in months in which manufactured products reach the factory gate while equally sharp dip in other months.

These spikes and dips are not necessarily consistent with the investment or demand patterns in the economy making it difficult for analysts to exclusively rely on factory output numbers given by the IIP.

"The volatility, which has been talked about, will continue to remain in the new index," said a senior official in the department of industrial policy and promotion (DIPP), which collects and processes majority of the data for the index.

"We might improve the data points but we still take the end product into consideration. This will remain in the new index too," he added. The current IIP series is based on data received from 3,900 sources. The new series will get information from around 4,800 sources and the coverage will expand to 300 items from a current 213 items. The base of the index will be revised from the current 1993-94 to 2004-05.

With the increased coverage required for the index, DIPP is also grappling with making the data flow for the expanded index consistent in order to reign in volatility caused by irregular reporting by companies increasing reliance on revised numbers in the current index.

Economists agree that the IIP numbers with the new base and increased data points cannot be taken at face value and that it would require "cautious" interpretation. " The fact is that there is no real solution to the problem as long as the index remains a production index," explains Abheek Barua, chief economist with HDFC Bank .

Barua adds that data, particularly that of capital goods need to be looked at for 3-4 months to arrive at a sustained trend.

For Barua the solution lies in an index measuring sales rather than production.

Never Enough Nails: Favorite Hair Product Ever!

As you all know by now, I have a deep, undying love of nail polish, make-up, and beauty products in general. You would think that I would be into hair products too and that I would have some vague idea of how to make my hair look nice. Yea, no... I don't do anything to my hair. My hair is straight. Like completely straight, no matter what I do to it. I can use any shampoo or conditioner and it still looks the same. I can use volumizing products and hair spray, and it basically still looks the same. If I use a curling iron/curlers, it looks bouncy and curly for all of 10 minutes. So, basically, I don't bother to do much with my hair because it looks the same no matter what I do. HOWEVER, last year I was a member of Beauty Fix, one of those programs where you pay monthly and they send you a box full of beauty products. Some products were full size and others were large sample size. One of the full-size products I received was Jonathan Product IB Revitalizer Overnight Oil Treatment Spray . It took me quite awhile to even get around to trying this product. I thought hair oil was seriously unnecessary. When I finally did get around to trying this, I was SO impressed!!! I couldn't believe how shiny and soft my hair looked after using this. I do not use this oil overnight, for fear of serious breakouts on my face in the morning. I coat my hair in this oil about an hour or so before I'm going to shower. The spray application makes it easy to coat all of your hair pretty quickly. I put my hair up in a bun when it is all coated and wait at least an hour. Then, I shampoo and condition as usual. My hair comes out looking super shiny and my ends look like they've actually had a haircut recently! I am like a hair salon's worst customer, I NEVER get haircuts as often as I should. But this hair oil makes my hair look like I kind of care about my hair. It even makes my hair color look better, but that might be because of the increased shine.

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Route 66 Exotic Coatings Ultimate Sample Kit A perfect size to sample our products

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